If Elon Musk was right, we’d all be zipping around in robotaxis by now.
Instead, fully autonomous cars are struggling to escape the starting grid. Some investors are betting that driverless trucks would reach the chequered flag first.
A year ago, robotaxis startups received eight times the funding as companies working on autonomous trucks, buses, and logistics vehicles. But, this gap has shrunk dramatically in 2021.
Trucks operating on major highways, fixed delivery routes, or in environments far away from cyclists and pedestrians like mines and ports, are now being viewed as a quicker way to generate returns.
According to PitchBook, the total investment in self-driving logistics vehicles increased fivefold between $1.3 billion and $6.5 billion in the year ended Dec. 6 and the same period in 2020.
According to data compiled by PitchBook for Reuters, investment activity in robotaxi firms fell 22% to $8.4 Billion from $10.8 Billion over the same period.
These numbers may not reflect the trend, as some robotaxi companies like Alphabet Inc’s Waymo are investing more money in their autonomous trucking operations.
Robotic Research announced Thursday that it raised $228 million from outside investors to expand its fleet of autonomous trucks, buses, and logistics vehicles.
SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2, Enlightenment Capital, and Luminar Technologies are among the investors who contributed to the new money. Luminar Technologies makes lidar sensors that are used in self-driving cars.
Alberto Lacaze, Chief Executive Officer at Robotic Research, told Reuters that the company was deploying autonomous cars at scale in areas where the business case is favorable for customers “right now”.
He said, “They don’t have to wait till 2025, unlike robotaxis which requires that the cost of all sensors go down by an order-of-magnitude.”
OVERPROMISES
Tesla’s Musk has promised a million robotaxis “next to certain” in 2019, but self-driving cars capable of safely navigating anywhere are still far off.
Lucid Motors’ head of electric vehicle (EV), Lucid Motors, Peter Rawlinson said last month that it would take ten years before robotaxis fleets are on the roads. Even with the most advanced sensors.
Asad Hussain, PitchBook’s mobility analyst, said that startups like Gatik, which makes autonomous short haul vans, and Nuro, with its mini delivery robots could surpass rival Cruise in the next few years when it comes to commercializing at scale.
Long-haul trucks are more difficult to automate than robotaxis, but self-driving truck company executives are cautious about the speed at which they can ramp up.
Cheng Lu, chief executive officer of TuSimple self-driving truck technology company TuSimple said, “We’re very cognizant about the overpromises made by the industry.” The company went public in April with a market capitalization of $8.5 billion.
He stated that the industry now understands the problem’s complexity and that it will take longer to solve it.
At the moment, TuSimple operates a fleet of 50 trucks with safety drivers that crisscross America’s southern states. But, it plans to build a national network that will cover major U.S. highways by 2024.
This will require significant investments in mapping highways and learning how to deal with more difficult weather conditions further north. Also, new self-driving trucks being created by Navistar, part of Volkswagen’s Traton.
“A LONG JOURNEY”
However, it could take many years to roll out a national network as self-driving vehicles still face a major challenge: human drivers.
Ralf Klaedtke (CEO of TE Connectivity), said that an autonomous vehicle will always brake if it comes into contact with a “testosterone-laden male human male”.
